New measures for witnesses: are they performing as anticipated?

The route of the witness through the criminal justice system, from identification to testimony, has always been fraught with difficulty. There are innumerable sources of influence, intimidation and manipulation which can affect a witness’s performance at any point on this pathway. In recent years, and in an effort to resolve several of the issues surrounding witness performance, the British Government have introduced a number of legislative measures to improve performance at identity parades and enhance the court experience of vulnerable witnesses and thereby improve the quality of their testimony. While it seems that these measures have been generally well received, there remain some valid questions over their implementation and whether they are eliciting the desired effects. The sequential identity parade system, V.I.P.E.R. was devised primarily as a cost-cutting procedural change by West Yorkshire Police in 1999. However, V.I.P.E.R.’s design was heavily influenced by the large extant literature declaring a sequential superiority effect for target absent parades. Specifically, the data claim that sequential identity parades significantly reduce the rate of false identifications from target absent parades whilst preserving hit rates for target present parades. Yet all of the studies purporting this effect have used a very different procedure to that employed by V.I.P.E.R.; these studies use, and recommend, a strict sequential procedure whilst UK legislation requires V.I.P.E.R. parades to be shown twice. Thus the effects of using a V.I.P.E.R. parade upon rates of identification and misidentifications have yet to be empirically investigated. The results of this study revealed that there was no significant effect of parade presentation mode upon rates of correct identifications for target present parades or the rate of mistaken identifications in target absent parades. The next step for many witnesses is the progression of their case to trial. The incidence of intimidation and vulnerability of adult witnesses appears to be increasing and so a range of Special Measures, more commonly used with child witnesses, were extended to adult witnesses who meet legislative criteria. However, there again has been no investigation into the effects the use of the Special Measures for adult witnesses has upon jurors ‘perceptions of that witness, the defendant and, if there is a change in perceptions, whether they are substantive enough to alter the trial verdict. The current experiments revealed that the use of a screen does not significantly alter jurors’ perceptions and had no effect on conviction rates. The use of live CCTV links led the witness to be perceived as less credible but again this did not affect the verdict. It is the use of pre-recorded video evidence which raises the most concern; witnesses testifying in this manner are perceived as significantly less credible and believable which in turn has a significant effect upon conviction rates. However, when tested in a deliberating jury group situation, all the Special Measures were associated with the witness being perceived as more credible compared to the control condition, although these differences were not significant, and there was no significant effect upon the rate of guilty verdicts across all conditions. Overall, it appears that the implementation of both of these legislative steps have had varying degrees of success. While the V.I.P.E.R. identity parade procedure has reduced running costs it appears that there are no significant differences between V.I.P.E.R. and simultaneous procedures for either target present or target absent identity parades. Conversely, it appears that the introduction of the Special Measures for vulnerable adult witnesses has been largely well received and tentatively successful in reducing witness anxiety. The data suggest that there are no significant negative effects associated with using these Special Measures, certainly under the more ecologically valid condition of the deliberating jury group. Nevertheless, a series of policy recommendations have been made for both identity parade and testimony procedures with the aim of further enhancing the witness’s performance and experience through the criminal justice system

Key Words in the Discourse of Discrimination: A Semantic Analysis

This thesis is an inquiry into discrimination, from a semantic perspective. In the discourse of discrimination, there is a set of key words. These terms are identified as the 'processes' of discrimination, the progressive stages and manifestations of sociocultural conflict. There are several dimensions to discrimination: a 'rhetorical' dimension, consisting of the speech acts of discrimination; a 'social' dimension, including the behaviours associated with discrimination; and a 'cognitive' dimension, which includes the underlying attitudes and ideologies. This thesis presents and justifies semantic explications for a field of words pertaining to the language of abuse, hatred and the 'processes' of discrimination. The discussion is categorised into four sections, commencing with an examination of the speech act verbs: 'insult', 'abuse', 'denigrate', 'vilify' and 'offend'. Then follows an analysis of words that describe the social acts of discrimination,including 'dehumanise', 'demonise', 'marginalise', 'stigmatise' and 'discriminate'. Next is an analysis of words that describe the cognitive elements of discrimination, including 'stereotype', 'intolerance', 'prejudice', 'xenophobia', 'racism' and 'sexism'. The analysis considers aspects of semantic phenomena, including: synonymy, polysemy, metaphor and ambiguity. The final section is a treatise on overt and covert discrimination, and discusses perspectives and directions in this area of research

An active learning approach to home heating in the smart grid

A key issue for the realization of the smart grid vision is the implementation of effective demand-side management. One possible approach involves exposing dynamic energy prices to end-users. In this paper, we consider a resulting problem on the user’s side: how to adaptively heat a home given dynamic prices. The user faces the challenge of having to react to dynamic prices in real time, trading off his comfort with the costs of heating his home to a certain temperature. We propose an active learning approach to adjust the home temperature in a semiautomatic way. Our algorithm learns the user’s preferences over time and automatically adjusts the temperature in real-time as prices change. In addition, the algorithm asks the user for feedback once a day. To find the best query time, the algorithm solves an optimal stopping problem. Via simulations, we show that our algorithm learns users’ preferences quickly, and that using the expected utility loss as the query criterion outperforms standard approaches from the active learning literature

ProsCan for Men: Randomised controlled trial of a decision support intervention for men with localised prostate cancer

Background: Prostate cancer is the most common male cancer in the Western world but is highly heterogeneous in disease progression and outcomes. Consequently, the most substantial morbidity may actually arise from the adverse psychosocial impact of distress in decision-making and long term quality of life effects such as impotence. This paper presents the design of a randomised controlled trial of a decision support/psychosocial intervention for men newly diagnosed with localised prostate cancer. Methods/Design: 350 men per condition (700 men in total) have been recruited after diagnosis and before treatment through urology private practices and hospital outpatient clinics and randomised to 1) a tele-based nurse delivered five session decision support/psychosocial intervention or 2) a usual care control group. Two intervention sessions are delivered before treatment that address decision support, stress management and preparation for treatment. Three further sessions are provided three weeks, seven weeks and five months after treatment that focus on adjustment to cancer, problem solving and coping with treatment side effects. Participants are assessed at baseline (before treatment) and 2, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post-treatment. Outcome measures include: cancer threat appraisal; decision-related distress and bother from treatment side effects; involvement in decision making; satisfaction with health care; heath care utilisation; use of health care resources; and a return to previous activities. Discussion: The study will provide recommendations about the efficacy of early decision support to facilitate adjustment after prostate cancer. As well the study will identify men diagnosed with localised prostate cancer at risk of poorer long term psychosocial adjustment

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator